Loss Factor Forecasting

Our Marginal Loss Factor (MLF) forecasting service is a popular choice for participants considering new projects or expansions, and has been shown to yield consistently accurate forecasts since we began the service in 2002.

 

Annual MLF contours across the NEM are often sensitive to small changes in transmission configuration and bidding behaviour, and can yield unexpected results and trends due to the complexity of flow penalties in the system and the way in which these penalties change during the course of a complete financial year.

 

The core software package used to conduct MLF forecasts is the Powerworld power flow program. An AC load flow is performed for every half-hour of the forecast period using Powerworld. Data for the load flow in each half-hour is sourced from the output of our market dispatch system, 2-4-C®.

 

Due to the critical impact that MLFs have on revenue to market participants, many projects have been declared feasible or otherwise on the basis of our projections in recent years.