Generation Planning

What generation technologies will dominate the Australian generation fleet in 2050 and beyond? How does the outlook change if gas prices were to double? Or if the carbon price changes? Or if the peak demand continues to out-grow annual energy?

Does the future look like this? Or like this?
Generation Capacity in the NEM 1 Generation Capacity in the NEM 2


Long-term outcomes are sensitive to these drivers, creating risk for energy market stakeholders who need insight into the future to make decisions now. Understanding this risk is at the core of making the best decisions.

ROAM Consulting can provide quantitative answers.

Our Long-Term Integrated Resource Planner (LTIRP) determines the co-optimised least-cost development of generation and transmission. It calculates the optimal timing, location and size of new entrant capacity, as well as plant retirements over a 50 year (or longer) period, taking into account intermittent generation sources (such as wind farms) and external policy drivers. Constraints such as reserve levels, build limits and forced retirements can be incorporated as needed.

ROAM has helped generators, retailers, regulators, project developers and governments to answer questions such as:

  • What is the optimal timing and size of transmission upgrades based on a given generation development plan, and vice versa?
  • What is the least-cost development plan for the generation sector in order to meet a particular emissions target? What capital cost expenditure is required to achieve this?
  • What is the long-term impact of renewable energy policies on the rest of the market?
  • What are the long-term costs and benefits of transmission interconnection, including potential new large interconnections such as between the NEM and the SWIS, or between regions in the NEM? International linkages, such as connecting to Papua New Guineas' abundant hydro resources, or New Zealand's abundant hydro and wind, are also able to be explored.

The LTIRP is not just for the NEM and the SWIS; the LTIRP can be used to address these sorts of questions in any system; big or small. The LTIRP is also integrated with ROAM's half-hourly energy market simulator, 2-4-C®, allowing detailed half hourly analysis to complement long term modelling.

Recent projects using the LITRP include: