ROAM Insight

What lies ahead for the electricity market?

The electricity market is undergoing rapid change, with rising input costs, a price on carbon emissions and mild demand forecasts. Weather forecasters have suggested there is a possibility that an El Niño weather pattern could take hold, while increasing penetration of intermittent renewable energy generators intensifies market volatility associated with weather events. To manage your exposure, you need the best independent advice, based on the most comprehensive modelling available.

In these uncertain times it is essential that you seek an understanding of the challenges facing the electricity market in order to stay ahead of the pack. You can find the key answers to the big questions in ROAM Insight. This report combines state-of-the-art modelling with expert electricity market knowledge to provide a forecast of the future of the National Electricity Market (NEM).
ROAM Insight cover art
This sixteenth issue of ROAM Insight focuses on the major factors driving the future of the market right now, including:
   -   Milder electricity demand projections
   -   LNG development and how the market could and should respond
   -   Water availability and the possibility of a return of El Niño conditions

At ROAM Consulting, we're passionate about capturing every aspect of the electricity market so that you can make the best decisions possible in the face of this growing uncertainty. ROAM Insight represents the pinnacle of ROAM Consulting's forecasting efforts, involving many hundreds of hours from our team of analysts to understand and model every facet of the NEM, from wind and solar generator intermittency through to transmission constraint equations and participant behaviours.

The Details

ROAM Insight provides a comprehensive forecast of the National Electricity Market for the next 6 years (2012-13 through 2017-18). There are two scenarios which you can examine in this year’s publication:
  • Central
  • Alternative

The Central scenario represents the combination of each of the most likely market drivers incorporating expected demand growth, carbon price trajectory, development in response to renewable energy policy and the availability of water for hydro generation.

The Alternative scenario investigates a plausible combination of market drivers which bring about a materially different forecast. The scenario investigates a lower carbon price trajectory, high demand growth and a return to drought conditions, impacting on hydro generation.

The ROAM Insight report examines the following issues:
  • Major issues faced by the market at present and over the short term
  • Review of the major changes to the market, and market reviews and investigations of the past twelve months
  • LNG developments and the possible responses plausible in both the Central and Alternative Scenarios
  • Investigation into the importance of the selection of reference year and how the inherent volatility in the reference demand and renewable generation traces can influence the outcomes of market modelling. Furthermore, we investigate each of the last six reference years, identifying which years are suitable for modelling purposes and use all six reference years to avoid any undue bias in our modelling outcomes.

Major outcomes of the forecast which are investigated and discussed in detail include:
  • Pool price forecasts
  • Large-scale Generation Certificates
  • Trends in generation amongst technologies, and the expansion of the renewable generation portfolio to meet the Renewable Energy Target
  • Trends in inter-regional trading illustrated through analysis of average interconnector flows and flow duration curves.

Still not convinced that ROAM Insight is essential reading for your organisation? Here's a sneak peak of the report.

Roam Insight
Report Preview

Report Format

You've been asking for a digital version of the report, and we've listened! ROAM Insight is now provided as an electronic report, distributable under licence to your entire organisation. Order your copy of ROAM Insight and receive it (almost) straight away – no more waiting eagerly beside the post box.

ROAM Insight Data Package

The forecast outcomes described in this report have been generated using the 2-4-C® software package. Two scenarios (Central Scenario and Alternative Scenario) as well as eight market response sensitivities (three for the Central Scenario and five for the Alternative Scenario) have been developed and simulated for each of the six forecast years from 2012-13 to 2017-18. For each of these ten cases, two alternate weather impacted demand scenarios have been simulated, the 10% POE and 50% POE demand projections, and six alternate reference years for demand, wind and solar profiles have been modelled. A total of twenty five Monte Carlo simulations have been conducted to investigate the impacts of random forced generator outages. In total, the data set which supports this report includes a total of 18,000 independent simulation years, or over 315 million individual trading intervals. As you can appreciate, this represents a significant data set which we have analysed to produce the investigations presented in this report.

The ROAM Insight #16 Data Package gives you the tools you need to interrogate this wealth of simulation data and draw your own conclusions.

By purchasing the Data Package you and your team are able to analyse market volatility, transmission congestion, generator operating profiles (including for wind farms and solar plants), examine revenue, evaluate potential contract premiums and value at risk; the sky is the limit with this much data at your fingertips! The included Result Analysis Tools are easy to use GUI-driven Excel workbooks which allow you to query the data and generate graphics summarising the outcomes.

The Data Package also includes a complete digital summary, in Excel format, of all the underlying data and each of the graphics included in this year's report. If you need to delve into the finer details, or you just want the data behind the charts, the ROAM Insight Data Package is for you.

How do I order ROAM Insight?

We recognise that the market is facing rising input costs and challenging conditions – it's a theme of the ROAM Insight report after all! In light of this, we consider that we can help, and have discounted the ROAM Insight publication by almost 50%. We would encourage you to consider putting the savings towards the Data Package, which represents fantastic value and provides the perfect complement to the analysis provided in the report. Please contact us to discuss how the Data Package could provide real benefits to your organisation.

To order your copy of ROAM Insight, just print out the form from the link below and email or fax it to us.
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Download previous editions of ROAM Insight below